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450SX

Dungey Wins If…
If he finishes fourth or better, he wins the championship—no matter what Eli Tomac does.

Tomac Wins If…
If he wins, and Dungey finishes fifth or worse, Tomac wins the championship. There’s a nine-point gap between first and fifth. If Tomac wins and Dungey takes fifth, they tied in points and Tomac wins the first tiebreaker (most wins).

Other Scenarios

Tomac finishes second…
Dungey would need to finish seventh or better to clinch the title.

Tomac finishes third…
Dungey would need to ninth or better to clinch the title. 

Tomac finishes fourth…
Dungey would need to finish 11th or better to clinch the title.

Tomac finishes fifth…
Dungey would need to finish 13th or better to clinch the title. 

Tomac finishes sixth…
Dungey would need to finish 14th or better to clinch the title.

And so on…

Tiebreaker

This belongs to Eli Tomac. The tiebreaker is determined by most wins on the season, and since Tomac currently has nine and Dungey has three, there is no way for Dungey to catch Tomac.

By the way, and we’ll repeat this stat a lot this week, the last time Dungey finished fifth or worse in a supercross was Round 15 of 2014.

 

 

250SX East Region

The Dave Coombs East/West Showdown will serve as the final round of the season for both the 250SX East and West Regions. Heat races will be divided by East and West, then the LCQ will combine each coast for the final four spots in the main event. In the main event, all of the riders will race together and score points together. In other words, the winner of the Showdown gets 25 points just like always. Second gets 22 points just like always. It doesn’t matter which coast you’re riding from, every rider is scored the same.

This is fairly straightforward: Between Jordon Smith, Zach Osborne and Joey Savatgy, whoever finishes higher inside the top five between on Saturday night is the champion. Smith has a one-point lead over Osborne and Savatgy, who are tied. We’re truly in a winner-take-all format.

EXCEPT…

Once we get outside of the top five, where positions are separated by one point instead of two, things start to change a little bit.

Since Smith holds the tiebreaker over Savatgy all he has to do is finish within one point of Savatgy and have Osborne finish behind him. This would tie Smith and Savatgy in the points and Smith’s two wins give him the tiebreaker over Savatgy’s one win.

Smith doesn’t hold the tiebreaker over Osborne, so this scenario doesn’t apply there. For example, if Osborne finishes fifth and Smith finishes sixth, they tie in points and Osborne wins the title providing Savatgy doesn’t finish further ahead.

If they somehow manage to finish 20-22, then Smith would win the championship even if he finishes behind Savatgy and Osborne, as 20-22 is awarded one point per position.

One More

Although he’s 14 points down, Adam Cianciarulo is still mathematically alive for the title—but he will need some help from three riders. If AC wins, he’ll need Smith to finish 11th or worse, Osborne 10th or worse (due to tiebreaker) and Savatgy ninth or worse (due to tiebreaker).

Tiebreaker

Osborne holds the tiebreaker over…
Savatgy, Smith, and AC. After his win last weekend, Osborne has four on the season to Smith’s two and Savatgy’s and Cianciarulo’s one, so, neither of the three can catch him.

Smith holds the tiebreaker over…
Savatgy and Cianciarulo. Smith would hold the tiebreaker over Cianciarulo, no matter if Cianciarulo wins this weekend to match him with two wins on the season. The AMA rulebook determines ties by number of wins first, then ”finishes of second, third, etc., will be tallied until the tie is broken.” They each have one second place finish, but Smith has two third place finishes to Cianciarulo’s one.

Savatgy holds the tiebreaker over….
Cianciarulo. For now. They each have one win, and Savatgy has four second place finishes. But, if AC wins on Saturday, he’ll hold the tiebreaker with two wins.

142920_multi_sx17_nj_rs_0761.jpg?auto=fo

 

 

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26 minutes ago, MANIAC998 said:

The 250 LCQ will be one Hell of a Barnburner!!!!!

Its been one Hell of a Season to come down to all of this.  Certainly memorable that's for sure :ride:

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Just now, MANIAC998 said:

The 250 LCQ will be one Hell of a Barnburner!!!!!

 Hopefully they show it, not just the highlights

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Excellent recap - I like the tags lol.

I usually DVR the WC rounds and watch them the next day, but I may have to watch this live on Sat night.

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 Or maybe his team mate Grant will get a chance to do it for him

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1 hour ago, Towel.Nutkis.Lipshiz said:

It'll be pretty boring watching Dungey play it safe while Tomac goes for the win.  If he was smart he;ll follow Dumgey and punt him.

Dunno...   what if Tomac gets inspired by watching the old chad reed / james stewart footage (2009?) where chad blatantly tried to take James out in Vegas.

Does Tomac have that in him?

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10 minutes ago, Just_a_trail_rider said:

Dunno...   what if Tomac gets inspired by watching the old chad reed / james stewart footage (2009?) where chad blatantly tried to take James out in Vegas.

Does Tomac have that in him?

I'm hoping he does

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4 hours ago, Towel.Nutkis.Lipshiz said:

It'll be pretty boring watching Dungey play it safe while Tomac goes for the win.  If he was smart he;ll follow Dumgey and punt him.

Knocking down the other guy in the last race might bring the AMA Ref into the results.

i hope we get to see Dungey and Tomac get a clean start and race fr the win.  

Since Dungey needs 4th or better, it ain't over until it's over.  A bad start could shake up the championship.

I will be curios to see if KTMs are placed on either side of Dungey at the start gate to give him a clear path to the first turn.

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The real fireworks will come if Dungey wins due to "Marvins Mistke" on the final lap in Jersey.

I think Dungey knows he needs to finish second or win to really seal the deal.

 

Any word on what happened to Tomac in Jersey?  He looked like he was riding a crippled bike after he laid it down.  I was wondering if the ignition mapping was off.  He just red like the bike was at 75%.

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5 hours ago, Kev_XR said:

Knocking down the other guy in the last race might bring the AMA Ref into the results.

i hope we get to see Dungey and Tomac get a clean start and race fr the win.  

Since Dungey needs 4th or better, it ain't over until it's over.  A bad start could shake up the championship.

I will be curios to see if KTMs are placed on either side of Dungey at the start gate to give him a clear path to the first turn.

One on each side of Dungey and the same for Tomac.   Hope they pinch off Tomac too.  

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16 hours ago, Kev_XR said:

The real fireworks will come if Dungey wins due to "Marvins Mistke" on the final lap in Jersey.

I think Dungey knows he needs to finish second or win to really seal the deal.

 

Any word on what happened to Tomac in Jersey?  He looked like he was riding a crippled bike after he laid it down.  I was wondering if the ignition mapping was off.  He just red like the bike was at 75%.

Surprised there hasnt been any info put out this week about it. I was guessing he got a bad case of arm pump, at any rate Eli was not feeling it at all most of the day unfortunately. Some of the races before that he might not have looked good in the heat race but would turn it around in the main. Last week was different.

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19 hours ago, Just_a_trail_rider said:

Dunno...   what if Tomac gets inspired by watching the old chad reed / james stewart footage (2009?) where chad blatantly tried to take James out in Vegas.

Does Tomac have that in him?

Well this is the race to pull out all the stops and get aggressive if theyre serious about winning IMO. Using team members, bumping and pushing, bar banging, block passing whatever. I think it will be obvious. But something I dont like to see is when someone is cross jumping to mess up another rider, thats pushing it too far IMO.

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2 hours ago, TDW said:

Well this is the race to pull out all the stops and get aggressive if theyre serious about winning IMO. Using team members, bumping and pushing, bar banging, block passing whatever. I think it will be obvious. But something I dont like to see is when someone is cross jumping to mess up another rider, thats pushing it too far IMO.

This is the race where Dungey yields the lead to Tomac early and then aggressively stays about 1 or two bikes behind him no matter what he does. 

Oh...  if Dungey should find himself in the lead, this is the week where he returns the favor to Musquin and lets him pass.  But I think he will sell it better than Marvin did.

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Dungey has never finished worse than 2nd in Vegas.

 

So either it's a done deal, or he's due for a bad one.  Unfortunately I think it's done deal, but rooting for a bad race (bad enough to at least make it close, don't really care who wins).

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14 hours ago, KTMRider4Life said:

One on each side of Dungey and the same for Tomac.   Hope they pinch off Tomac too.  

I hope Tomac pinches one off on you.  

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