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New Bike Sales - less than 1/2 of sales in 2006

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The Big Twin fad is over. Gone are the days of yuppies forking over $80K for an unrideable  bike worth at best, $30K. The market is flooded with used bikes for sale and why buy new when you can get an identical machine with 500 miles on it that has a dead battery at 1/2 the cost of new?

Harley screwed the pooch. They went all boutique and over sold. No long term vision. Not the first time they screwed up. The real Harley riders I know are running pan heads.

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Yeah I'm sure the Harley issue was part of it.  The other part of it is that young adults simply don't ride as much.  They don't want the hassle, are adverse to the risk and don't see the benefit.  It's loud, it's dirty, it's dangerous (relative to playing with a cell phone) and it's expensive.

One of the reason the big box electronics stores are in such dire straights (those that are left) is as simple as millennials simply either can't (they own a Prius) or don't want to hassle with picking the TV up.  They want it on their doorstep.  It's amazing that such a simple cultural change in generations caused billions of dollars in sales to move from one place (brick and mortar) to another place (online).

We hired a new guy as a software developer making good money.  He was a young guy out of college.  On his first day I showed him his desk and the first words out of his mouth were "I don't think I can be creative in this space" referring to our cubicles.  Holy crap...  When I got my first good paying professional job out of college I was like a little puppy dog willing to do anything to prove myself.  It's a different world now.

 

Doc

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With the economy still pretty much in the tank, $$ for toys is remaining at an all time low. The boomer generation (my generation as I'm 59) has, for the most part, come to their senses and realized that spending huge $$ to own a brand name has become more laughable than envious. With $$ being tighter, and the passing of the "Wild Hogs" fad, H-D sales are bound to falter.

Bike sales are just bad in general. The shop up the road that does consignment sales, have bikes that are low miles, for give away prices, that have been setting there for a year now. People have no spare change, and since the '08-'09 crash, can't borrow any, or are like me, and don't want to borrow any. My job is still shaky and I've had to pass up a lot of unreal deals (a '16 leftover GSX-S1000 ABS that MSRPs for $10,999, marked down to $7,699 :facepalm: ), and I'm far from being the only rider in the broke boat. 

Edited by OLHILLBILLY
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48 minutes ago, Doc_d said:

Yeah I'm sure the Harley issue was part of it.  The other part of it is that young adults simply don't ride as much.  They don't want the hassle, are adverse to the risk and don't see the benefit.  It's loud, it's dirty, it's dangerous (relative to playing with a cell phone) and it's expensive.

One of the reason the big box electronics stores are in such dire straights (those that are left) is as simple as millennials simply either can't (they own a Prius) or don't want to hassle with picking the TV up.  They want it on their doorstep.  It's amazing that such a simple cultural change in generations caused billions of dollars in sales to move from one place (brick and mortar) to another place (online).

We hired a new guy as a software developer making good money.  He was a young guy out of college.  On his first day I showed him his desk and the first words out of his mouth were "I don't think I can be creative in this space" referring to our cubicles.  Holy crap...  When I got my first good paying professional job out of college I was like a little puppy dog willing to do anything to prove myself.  It's a different world now.

 

Doc

Most guys I know in their 20s buy street bikes used. No one buys Harley's anymore, everyone knows they are complete crap. There's plenty of bikes out there and younger guys don't mind spinning wrenches... It's the older generation that doesn't want to work on shit anymore who are buying new...

I think your a bit out of touch why people buy online instead of big box stores and its because of price and finding the best deal, pretty simple.

You must work with a bunch of Prius driving hipsters but a skinny jeans software developer you met is hardly something to base a generalization of a whole generation off of...

Edited by Casing-daily
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You must work with a bunch of Prius driving hipsters but a skinny jeans software developer you met is hardly something to base a generalization of a whole generation off of...


Man I don't know about that part. Look around outside of motorcycle circles. There seem to be an awful lot of them. Also it seems to be pretty trendy to be a useless girly boy in these times. TV and the internet prove it.
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8 minutes ago, Metal and Dirt said:

 


Man I don't know about that part. Look around outside of motorcycle circles. There seem to be an awful lot of them. Also it seems to be pretty trendy to be a useless girly boy in these times. TV and the internet prove it. emoji1.png

 

Dunno.

Quite a few guys in their 20s in construction and the trades, covered in tatts, wearing singlets and sporting mullets.

Had a couple beers for breakfast with a few of those guys Sunday.

Maybe a rarer breed but they are around.

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22 minutes ago, Casing-daily said:

I think your a bit out of touch why people buy online instead of big box stores and its because of price and finding the best deal, pretty simple.

 

Ha!  That's pretty funny.  I work for a corporation that does approximately 30 billon dollars a year in sales.  A significant quantity of those sales are from their online business.  I designed and wrote a good deal of that software.  There's a reasonable chance chance you or someone in your family has purchased something that was fulfilled through my software.  I sit in meetings where data scientists go over the analytics that cover customer demographics and behaviors.  So I'm going to disagree with you on this one.  Well at least where commodity items like TVs are concerned.

Electrical commodities like TVs have very low margin rates which leaves little room for pricing discretion,  Manufacturers often enforce minimum advertised pricing rules that further levels the playing field across retailers.  Furthermore every major retailer, in real time, monitors all their competitor's pricing by scraping their websites with bots and will adjust their prices to keep them very comparable because they know there are only two things that matter on a commodity item, price and convienence. 

We see that even when pricing is the same or slightly better at a brick and mortar store the younger customers will still purchase online whereas older customers will drive to the physical store to purchase the item at a higher rate.  For the younger cudtomer's it's all about the convienence.  I suspect for the older customer's it's about risk aversion and being in control.  If I go pick it up I don't have to worry about it getting damaged in shipment, getting stolen off my door, I can have it tonight, returns are easy, et .

It's not good or bad.... Just different.  There are stark behavior differences between generations.  I'm just saying some of those differences most certainly play into why motorcycle sales continue to decline. 

 

Doc

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11 minutes ago, GoneDirtBikeN said:

Maybe a self-driving electric motorcycle will revive the market.

Only if it is served de constructed.

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16 minutes ago, BushPig said:

Dunno.

Quite a few guys in their 20s in construction and the trades, covered in tatts, wearing singlets and sporting mullets.

Had a couple beers for breakfast with a few of those guys Sunday.

Maybe a rarer breed but they are around.

I'm considering a mullet myself as a matter of fact. It needs to be brought back...

 

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1 hour ago, Doc_d said:

The other part of it is that young adults simply don't ride as much.

Kids spend about half the time playing outside as people did in 2006. Unless we can get our kids outdoors, all outdoor sports will suffer. With less voting consumers of outdoor activities we stand to lose riding land, shooting ranges, hunting grounds, etc., at an increasing rate.

 

2012 National Trust Study:  https://www.nationaltrust.org.uk/documents/read-our-natural-childhood-report.pdf

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10 minutes ago, Casing-daily said:

I'm considering a mullet myself as a matter of fact. It needs to be brought back...

 

Yeah. Just don't get a rat's tail. 

You know why? Pull starter for a &%$#@!wit.

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My 15 year old grandson has a TTR230 we bought him a couple years ago.  Hasn't ridden it in over a year.  He sits in his room playing video games and his guitar and texting his friends.  And his friends are just like him.

Edited by cjjeepercreeper
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Same with one of my nephews. The other is about 5 years older (early 20s) and spends LOTS of time out of doors. He grew up hunting and fishing on a lake with a buddy who had a boat and no video games. Completely different people.

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I'm guessing a lot of bikes sold during 2004-2006 were bought with funny money from the housing market craziness. Shops near us blew up and then later folded up. I think the last time I bought a new bike was 2002 (an R6...woot!). I'm too cheap and practical to buy new. Every bike we have now are used purchased off CL.

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2 minutes ago, WWalker said:

I'm guessing a lot of bikes sold during 2004-2006 were bought with funny money from the housing market craziness. Shops near us blew up and then later folded up. I think the last time I bought a new bike was 2002 (an R6...woot!). I'm too cheap and practical to buy new. Every bike we have now are used purchased off CL.

That is very insightful! Checking the sales graphs, the climb/peak was 1998-2006, growth during the housing boom. Then a crash after 2006. We're still buying about 50% more bikes than during the pre-housing boom...and pre-internet age.

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People live on their smart phones to go riding...ive bought 4 new bikes in the past year hehe

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2 hours ago, Doc_d said:

Yeah I'm sure the Harley issue was part of it.  The other part of it is that young adults simply don't ride as much.  They don't want the hassle, are adverse to the risk and don't see the benefit.  It's loud, it's dirty, it's dangerous (relative to playing with a cell phone) and it's expensive.

One of the reason the big box electronics stores are in such dire straights (those that are left) is as simple as millennials simply either can't (they own a Prius) or don't want to hassle with picking the TV up.  They want it on their doorstep.  It's amazing that such a simple cultural change in generations caused billions of dollars in sales to move from one place (brick and mortar) to another place (online).

We hired a new guy as a software developer making good money.  He was a young guy out of college.  On his first day I showed him his desk and the first words out of his mouth were "I don't think I can be creative in this space" referring to our cubicles.  Holy crap...  When I got my first good paying professional job out of college I was like a little puppy dog willing to do anything to prove myself.  It's a different world now.

 

Doc

Entitled, spoiled brat world. Sad.

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