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18 Shoot down predictions

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This is just for fun and to incite a few flames of course ;). I have been on my 2007-8 crf450 for the last 8 years (actually gone through a few of them) for one reason and one reason only. In 2009 the winds of change were starting to blow in bike design and IMO it has taken till now for things to finally settle to the point where I see a reason to consider buying a new one.

Anyway I thought it would be fun to take a guess and list the order you believe the new 450’s will land in upcoming shoot downs, and if you’re inclined, to go ahead and play the fool along with me and give your reasons.

Below are my predictions, let the war begin….

1-2, will again be the KTM/Husky. While the jap bikes are making strides in the right directions (finally) none of them are likely to be the total package yet regardless of how far they may have come in one or two areas. I am not a KTM swinger but from a technical standpoint I cannot deny that KTM has become a refined, balanced, and well executed overall package.

3, A tough one this year, Yamaha, and Suzuki, have new platforms. Kawasaki finally has a solid chassis but has hung onto undesirably complex forks and has fallen from grace with a mellow motor. Honda has what may be a great bike IF they tidy up a few things. This is a guess with no info in the Suz and little on the Yamaha and Honda. So its a gut guess based on history guided opinion. I put the Honda here.

4- Yamaha. It could take 3rd IF they can easily make it turn with a few minor clicker and sag changes. I suspect it will be better this year but will need refinement so 4th it is.

5- This leaves Kow and Suz. If Suzuki hasn't done anything glaringly wrong and the suspension is at least ridable I suspect it will move up one notch this year if for no other reason than that they are finally moving again. I put Suzuki here.

6- Not that it's a bad bike, its just that everyone else has likely at least just edged it out by making some useful changes. I put Kawasaki here.

Anyway I was just bored and this is what spewed out…..

 

 

Edited by lowmass
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You might change the subject to "450 shootout" predictions.

There is best platform for the pro series and best for us spodes.

I find the wider addition of  electric start interesting.  Will factories run it or just us lazy guys?

While brands are returning to spring forks, KTM is staying with air.

Edited by Kev_XR
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My predictions are:

 

KTM will lead in the dual sport market

Polaris will win the SXS wars

Yamaha will wrap up the watercraft, outboard,  and atv battles

Honda will sell a crap load of Accords and generators

Kawi will still struggle to unseat Caterpillar as the undisputed heavy tractor king

Suzuki will still be wondering if they can sell anything that people want

 

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21 minutes ago, Kev_XR said:

You might change the subject to "450 shootout" predictions.

There is best platform for the pro series and best for us spodes.

I find the wider addition of  electric start interesting.  Will factories run it or just us lazy guys?

While brands are returning to spring forks, KTM is staying with air.

I like shoot down better, Im a pessimist 

I suspect they will all be running the button soon

KTMs air system is simple BUT I suspect they will ALL be back to springs eventually. Us spodes simply dont need the added hassle

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I wonder if people realise the aer maintains pressure for over a month ?that's right you only need to check it once a month

Sent from my XT1650 using ThumperTalk mobile app

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5 minutes ago, mog said:

I wonder if people realise the aer maintains pressure for over a month ?that's right you only need to check it once a month

Sent from my XT1650 using ThumperTalk mobile app
 

I did not kno. Impressive

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I'm sure you've hear the line, "Jeeps are not bought, they're built." I think bikes are like this too. We know that the pros tune their race craft to the rider. Roczen made that Suzuki fly las summer.

Lowmass, I bet you have done some mods to your 10 year old crf's too. You have to have some cash and you need to know what you are doing, but guys will change out forks and shocks too.

Jeep enthusiast ogle over the new JK's and Rubicon's too, just like we check out the new bikes, but for a serious trail machine, new Jeeps too, are soon modified.

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20 minutes ago, Hendricus said:

I'm sure you've hear the line, "Jeeps are not bought, they're built." I think bikes are like this too. We know that the pros tune their race craft to the rider. Roczen made that Suzuki fly las summer.

Lowmass, I bet you have done some mods to your 10 year old crf's too. You have to have some cash and you need to know what you are doing, but guys will change out forks and shocks too.

Jeep enthusiast ogle over the new JK's and Rubicon's too, just like we check out the new bikes, but for a serious trail machine, new Jeeps too, are soon modified.

The mod thing is interesting. The my first 07  did get moded. forks, shock, pipe, gearing, HC piston. By the time I got to the 4th one its nothing but spring to my weight and add a tooth to rear sprok.

The bigger point is this. Starting around 2009 I saw the manufactures start to experiment and KTM start to refine. I see this going on for the last 8 years and every year I rode the new bikes and came away with the conclusion that my 08crf was not being challenged enough to convince me to buy. As well Yamaha and Honda were shooting for the fence with radical change that any experienced engineer knows is likely to take years to ether realize the potential or realize it wasn't a good direction. 

IMO we are just now starting to see the dust settle and I see some truly great bikes comming. Bikes worthy of the price.

So far IMO KTM has gotten their first.   

Edited by lowmass
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The Yammy is going to be better than was the last few years, but not good enough to beat the KTM / Husky.

I get the feeling the changes / refinements to the Honda are going to make the '18 a very good bike.  The only one of the bunch that might actually beat out the Euro bikes.

The Suzuki is the most interesting though.  They lost all the shootouts for quite some time, but at the same time, many said it's the best platform to start with.  I have a feeling this new bike is going to be very good.  But it will likely be a year or two of refinements for it to tops.

The Kawi is the only one w/out electric start right?  You lose.

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Which manufacturer is claiming the most? Who is using descriptors such as "All new for 2018?" Is this not Yamaha for 2018? For 2017, Honda was the "all new bike" drama queen.

If the bike testers and critics come away saying, "This 'all new' bike is definitely a better bike...," then that's who wins the shoot out.

I agree, the Husky and the KTM still might be the better bike overall, but who wins the most improved ribbon?

It's a little embarrassing when you claim all new!!! and your bike has very little - if any - incremental improvement. 

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For the privateer the best bike is the bike that pays the best Contingency. That would be KTM and Husky.   You are a conmplete moron if you are a 20th -40th place National rider and you are not riding a KTM or Husky. 

With that said. Fast guys will go fast on any bike and slow guys will go slow on any bike. 

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31 minutes ago, RMZ819 said:

For the privateer the best bike is the bike that pays the best Contingency. That would be KTM and Husky.   You are a conmplete moron if you are a 20th -40th place National rider and you are not riding a KTM or Husky. 

With that said. Fast guys will go fast on any bike and slow guys will go slow on any bike. 

What if the local dealership provides with a bike that isn't orange or white?  Still a "complete moron"?

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6 hours ago, lowmass said:

This is just for fun and to incite a few flames of course ;). I have been on my 2007-8 crf450 for the last 8 years

Anyway I was just bored and this is what spewed out…..

 

 

still running a 2009 ktm, stuck in a grove

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23 minutes ago, Mudd94 said:

What if the local dealership provides with a bike that isn't orange or white?  Still a "complete moron"?

Free from dealership = good for the rider. If the bike is not orange or white you don't even make back your entry fees. 

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5 minutes ago, Kev_XR said:

Still running a 1999 XR400.  Stuck in a canyon. 

Pics! I want to see your XR. Is she ratty and beat up? Or does she get some new parts from time to time?

Edited by Hendricus

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"still running a 2009 ktm, stuck in a grove"

Or did you mean "groove?"

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1 hour ago, Mudd94 said:

What if the local dealership provides with a bike that isn't orange or white?  Still a "complete moron"?

Compared to the cost of a year of competition, one year of your life, free isn't always better.

The bikes are much closer to each other than skis.  One year I was offered free skis.   My first sponsor!  I was stoked.   Well, the skis were not that great.  I traded skis with a friend for one run.   Everyone said that was my best run they had seen in a while.  "What did you change?"   Umm, not sure.

 The biggest upside was it got me in the "sponsored skier pool".   More skis followed.

I remember being in an enduro, the guy on the next minute was on a YZ125 with no speedometer.  He said "It pays the best contingency money."   He was good enough to roost on anything.

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