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My new bike bubble has burst

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I like to buy the bike that was bought and never used. And those guys take a beating like mog. And those bikes come with a lot of the extras I'll need to spend money on anyway. I just bought an 18 with 18 hours for 4 grand less than the original owner had in it. And it did cost the dealer a sale on a new one. If I wouldn't have found this deal, I would have been forced to buy a new one.

I did the same. Was going to bite the bullet and buy new but found a 17 with 24 VERY light use hrs on it for $2500 under retail. Had to drive a very long way to get it but I didn’t care. It looked basically new. It also had a few good upgrades included. I’m a very happy camper with this bike and plan to keep it for another year or so. This bike hasn’t got me window shopping, just yet lol.
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It's quite obvious that many have not paid attention to what MOG 's point is. They instead talk about everything else, time spent riding, how many bikes they have, how much money they make, or maybe want us to think they make. The cost of getting into this sport is keeping the average teenager out. They are the future of the sport.

Thank you Jim ,I don't see why the others can't see the actual point ?

 

 

It's not about me or my bike ,it's about the industry

 

 

If a 46 year old with a bit of disposable income feels that a bike has become just too expensive and loses too much value , very few will be buying new , a friend went into dealer this time last year and almost no 150 were left ,in 19 there were lots

 

 

You can ride for cheaper ,it's not about that ,it's about the state of the new market . I think dealers will be nervous

 

Yes someone can pick up a bargain bike after a year ,but not if I won't sell it ! As I won't pay the extra lol

 

And it's not the bike choice ,this is comparing like with like ,the used price of an 18 150 s down on a 17 150 at the same time of year

 

I didn't think this was a complex thread ?

 

Too many people are trying to solve the problems of what to do with my bike , I don't need help on that

 

If almost no one buys new the whole industry will cave in

 

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Come-on man! I'm just studding up to go ride in Sub-Zero temps.
34°C??? Bah. You don't even have to dodge Grizzlies, moose, wolves, wild horses, cougars.
Really disappointed in your level of commitment!

IMG_20181015_110131.thumb.jpg.d59ad7985bc92122a7b35e890f0b740e.jpg
Lol I am a wuss , been riding for 30 years now ,I ride only when I feel it , I do 4 *20 minutes Motos and go home ,no trail or off road ,it's not my thing

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Wow-  that is maybe 3 rides!    But of course I dont’ Know if you are racing or trail riding.  Quite a bit different.  I just replaced the piston/rings on my OSSA after almost 400 hours.  Piston visually appeared perfect, the ring end gap was overly large, so certainly due for a replacement.  But that is NOT racing and lots of slow speed and even idling.
I understood the 150 had a reasonable mid/low. But perhaps a different model?  (Do you have an SX, XC or XCW?)
It's an sx ,piston at 23 hours ,pretty worn

The life span on 150 parts is pretty short ,vf4 reeds are lasting around 30 hours ( gaps already at 27)
Rings and pistons ( pistons have been known to crack at 30 )
I use top quality oil mixed at 30:1 ,the bike is always tuned to make sure it's not lean

I don't mind the high running costs ,it's to be expected for this motor

The list price £6899 for a 19 2 stroke is more than I paid for a 4 stroke in 16 and 17 , something has to give and i think the dealers will be feeling that pain in 19 IMG_20180826_122519599.jpeg

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IMO 28 hrs is such a small number of hrs to think about selling unless you hated the bike.
Break down $4k over 28 hrs and it amounts to $142 for every hr of use that bike has cost you. You can spend your money however you want but that is straight up foolish by most people’s standards. I have to “make due” with a “old” (lol) 2017 250xc and I’m not even at all interested in shopping for a new bike. Put 25 hrs on it in the last 2 months alone and im totally happy with it.
A 2019 is going to be what, maybe 2% “better”? And in what way? Only one way to find out I suppose.
I know that region plays a big part of how much you can get out of a used dirtbike. Where I live ktms/huskys command top dollar, but what few 150s I’ve seen for sale were much cheaper then a comparable 250-300. Just not a popular bike new or used here.
Dealers give nothing for trades either, always better to sell privately and walk in with cash but I’m sure you know that. Either way, you earned the money, if a 19 will make you happy, I say go for it!
 
As I stated at the begining I don't need a 19 ,I won't go faster , it's nice to have a new bike when in past years you had to work insanely hard to buy new ,I now have the ability to buy new without it hurting like it used to ,but I won't as it's crazy money , dealers need to make a profit , but I can't burn money at that level

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I dont understand why everyone keeps using that 4k number as if it means something.

Sell it personally and that number will probably be about 2k, still kind of high but thats the actual drop in value over the first year. Trading anything in at the dealer will always get you ripped off, no huge surprise there.

 

If youre on the new bike every year kick the best idea is to wait until the new model year comes out and buy the leftovers, then sell the old bike. That way you get the best price and arent trying to sell at the worst time of the year.

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I'm trying to show you the deals this year , compared to the same time last year ( like for like ) have gone pretty badly downwards ,you can always make the deal better but the fact stands , the new price is up , the used price is down ,the price difference higher than last year

KTM rely on people like me ( higher disposable income 40 something ) to sell new bikes ,if that demographic stops buying ( as I have ) then the top of the market ( new bike sales ) falls out

This will have a knock on effect ( maybe for the best I don't know )

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The biggest problem for the motorcycle industry and dealers is the severe lack of new riders. The price of motorcycles new or used for young people does not matter if they have no interest at all in riding motorcycles. 

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6 minutes ago, gspartsguy said:

The biggest problem for the motorcycle industry and dealers is the severe lack of new riders. The price of motorcycles new or used for young people does not matter if they have no interest at all in riding motorcycles. 

And the market dries up accordingly. I think the Big 5 have seen the writing on the wall for a few years now, and instead of trying to fix the issue, which in reality might not be irreversible, they are milking it for all that it's worth, bleeding us +40yr old buyers of all of our disposable cash until the crash. So enjoy MX bikes while you can!!!

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My 17 year old is a rider for life. But I think overall most kids these days would rather play playstation. Hunting licenses are down as well as most other outdoor recreation.

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7 hours ago, CORider63 said:

Yep, and that's why only moro.....er, it's such a LOVELY state.

:smirk:

I've lived in your neck of the woods......here we race year round it's just that we race under the lights in the summer......up in Colorado you have to plow the snow off to ride a frozen track.....could be why a lot of mx racers up there we downhill ski racers....I loved it up there but Az just makes more sense to me....too bad I can't go back to visit the high country as I can't handle the altitude

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Mog it's hard to sympathize with you on the economics of dirt bikes. What you are experiencing now is not much different than we have been experiencing for the last 30 years. I understand you preference of a small bore lightweight 2 stroke, they are a kick in the ass to ride but expensive. We raced all sizes 125's up to 450's. In the end the only one that we still have is an 05 YZ250 . Most bang for the buck and fun factor off the charts.

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21 hours ago, mog said:

I have no need to buy new , it's nice I can afford to now , but the average 20 something guy is going to really struggle in the next few years ,that's the point I'm making

 The average 20something has no idea hes about to quit riding either due to injury or the brandy new mortgage all the other costs associated withth moving out of mommy and daddys house.....

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You can't take this 1 example of your experience and paint it as the state of the industry. That is such a small sample size and so much generalization going on here. And to say that because you can't get what you expected out of your 18 shows that young people can't get into the sport, is asinine. There are plenty of good choices for someone wanting to get into the sport. It's only unrealistic if you buy it and think you need to re-invest into another new bike the next year. You are saying that the used price of the 18 is down from the  used 17, the year prior.  The 17 and 18 were the same bike, the 19 is a new model. So of course 18s are going for less now, as it is not the current model anymore. And people with 17-18s all think they need the new one , you being a great example. The industry is fine. When the new redesigns come out, the dealers make you pay a premium for them and the previous model takes a hit. That goes with anything. Let's not paint with such a broad brush and act like the industry is crashing because you didn't get the deal you wanted. 

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Yall sell your used bikes!?

I just cant let em go...still have my last 10 bikes...plus playbikes....

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I wonder if it isn't just the nature of the beast?   

At some point there has to be a slow year or 2 for sales right, at least when your sales have been climbing steadily?  Good sales, push the prices up on new machines as inventory struggles to keep up with demand and eventually the majority of the people who were interested in a newer bike have one and sales drop off and it will take some time for the market to adjust.

KTM sales could be like the cruiser/Harley bubble we saw around here back in the mid 2000s, probably not as bad though.  Or to a lesser extent like the AR rifle platform boom we saw here in the US.  You couldn't find one and if you did prices were sky high, used prices on everything were at a premium.  Eventually everything caught up, you couldn't give away used stuff to a dealer, could find whatever you want in any store for half of what they used to charge and there is used stuff for sale everywhere. 

At least it seems KTM's are all the rave right now, lots of riders new and seasoned getting into/back into riding especially trail riding.  KTM's have been and are being held as the premier off road trail bike for all riders.  So if tons of riders bought new in the last 3 years or so, lets say people buying 16's -18's most of those people are probably content with what they have and or just don't ride as much as they thought they would and can't justify buying another bike be it $, necessity or commitment.  Then consider how many of those people who have bought new in the last 3 years are passionate riders with disposable income?  Probably not many.  The other demographic that buys new every year are serious racers... or well their parents ;)  That market isn't huge either.   So again, at some point demand for new drops and levels out before retailers can adjust.  Probably part of the reason KTM tries to throw out so many model year changes, to keep people buying new to get the "new must have innovation" which helps keep sales up.  I am not 100% sure but i don't think the '19's boast any significant changes to 17/18's correct me if i'm wrong.

Right now in my area for sure the SxS scene is where the money is to be made.  Give it another year or 2 and that bubble will burst just like everything else.  Most everyone who wanted and or thought they needed one will have one and won't be spending another 10k + on a new one anytime soon.   Then it will be time to shop lightly used machines at a steal of a price :thumbsup:

 

On another note, i tend to think dirt bikes depreciate a lot in value, very quickly.  How many other machines do you buy and completely beat the brakes off of or have poor owners that neglect or do improper maintenance? 

Edited by subxero

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1 hour ago, Budlite said:

I've lived in your neck of the woods......here we race year round it's just that we race under the lights in the summer......up in Colorado you have to plow the snow off to ride a frozen track.....could be why a lot of mx racers up there we downhill ski racers....I loved it up there but Az just makes more sense to me....too bad I can't go back to visit the high country as I can't handle the altitude

No snow removal required:

455203981_MR5D2121Cropped16x9.JPG.b9ba04f8d4f2766df7f76a5bb73d56de.JPG

:smirk:

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32 minutes ago, CORider63 said:

No snow removal required:

455203981_MR5D2121Cropped16x9.JPG.b9ba04f8d4f2766df7f76a5bb73d56de.JPG

:smirk:

you know I really wanted one of those....they've been around as long as dirt bikes

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