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SteveThe Snakes

Don’t catch the Corona Kung flu virus

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35 minutes ago, Jeff aka Bolt said:

I am reasonably concerned and always live a priority driven life.  Paying more attention to the little things.

To that end I play with the dogs more...  spend more time outside...  call my mom and sisters more...  yell at the wife less...  savoring better food...  enjoying the shit out of spring this year after all the rain...  even people watching with my dog in the parking lot of our old country store seems more entertaining now...  planning on a little tractor ride Thursday.  

I don't feel my concerns have done anything but improve my life overall.  Mindset. thumbsx2.gif.97b4cf09e974b956a8b5932af6df478b.gif

Yous good. But let’s get that toe fixed now before something bad gets out of wack. 😉

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I really don't get people losing there shit over Trump comments, regarding the disinfectant. Do we really need on this planet people who are stupid enough to ingest or shootup disinfectant or eat tide pods! Are these the people that will fall of cliffs if it were not for the signs!? Good riddance!

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Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, Chief said:

Yeah, somebody else pointed out the 4% death rate to me. 

But it’s still 4% of 0.1% of the population. 

Also, the 4% is a moving number going down as the number infected or already had it, will go up.  

Since the death rate compared to population is low, I think it’s reasonable and totally possible to get back to normal while protecting the vulnerable.

I would venture to say, a great many of the people advocating to reopen, would be advocating to stay home if the virus was truly killing people at the rapid rate. 

Not to mention that there are some using this to advance other agendas.  

And I totally agree with the handshaking. 

 

 

9 hours ago, Jeff aka Bolt said:

The difference:

You cannot compare the total number of deaths or even infections of the flu with NO intervention to Wuhans with the world hiding from one another at home.  There is NO DOUBT that with zero intervention Wuhans would have burned civilization to the ground.

Three month average DEAD in the USA:
5,000 to 12,000 = Flu with folks walking around anywhere they want.
50,000 = Wuhans in total lock down world wide

Wuhans killed up to 10 times the people Flu does even with us all HIDING AT HOME !

Bored people at home seem to not understand the impact of them being at home in the first place.

 

Normally I don't get involved in discussions like this, but since there are statistics involved it has caught my attention.

I wrote a long ass mathematical dissertation in late March to explain to my 78 year old mom in MI why she needed to take the quarantine seriously.

She decided that it would be easier to quarantine than to actually read what I wrote; so she has been laying low and so far so good.

Anyways, I'll give you guys the short version of it, if you are interested.

 

There are 2 ways of stopping a pandemic.

1) Tracking and Containment.

2) Quarantine.

 

-- Tracking and Containment --

Taiwan is the poster child on how to do tracking right. Taiwan was also in the crosshairs of the pandemic-- before covid19 hit there were 22,000 passengers travelling back and forth between China and Taiwan EVERY SINGLE DAY.

As of today, April 27th, guess how many people have died in Taiwan because of Covid19? Six. Six people have died.

For those of you who are yelling 'fake news' I can assure you that Taiwan has their shit together. I was just there last year, it's a pretty impressive place, right up there with Japan at the top of the economic and social ladder.

Six dead in a country of 23 million people, with a shitton of cross border traffic, including direct flights from Wuhan.

No quarantine. No lockdowns, no economic disaster.

They achieved this by being prepared (they were hit hard by SARS), by being diligent, and by acting fast.

Here is a good video someone made of their trip from the UK back to Taiwan:

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/taiwans-aggressive-efforts-are-paying-off-in-fight-against-covid-19

Another good video:

https://www.wsj.com/video/opinion-us-should-learn-from-taiwan-coronavirus-response/B65D077D-F1D6-4219-9F73-00589B3C96B7.html

Here's an article with a bunch of additional details:

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-taiwan-case-study-rapid-response-containment-2020-3

 

"But Americans would refuse to be tracked!" you say.

You are correct. And if we had acted swiftly and diligently **YOU** wouldn't need to be tracked - only people arriving from an infected area would need to be tracked, and only for 2 weeks. Mr International Business Traveler, are you refusing to be tracked? No problem then, we will just put you right back on the next plane back to wherever you came from.

"But we didn't know about it in time to track and contain!" you say.

Bull &%$#@!ing shit. Our National Center for Medical Intelligence warned both the military and the Whitehouse that there was an outbreak in Wuhan in LATE NOVEMBER. There were classified briefings to senators on January 20th, early enough for 4 bastard senators, including Feinstien, to sell their stocks off. Yes China hid the outbreak for 3 weeks until the end of January, but they were hiding it from Chinese citizens. Our government already knew about it and wasn't telling us. The inaction and lack of preparedness is our own fault. You can blame China or the WHO all you want, but the dates prove that we knew what was happening already.

References for the above statements:

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/intelligence-report-warned-coronavirus-crisis-early-november-sources/story?id=70031273

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/488593-four-senators-sold-stocks-before-coronavirus-threat-crashed-market

(and every other media outlet in the country)

 

-- Quarantine --

If you screw up the containment (like we did) then you have 2 options -- let it run rampant or quarantine.

Let me ask you a simple question -- do you have a cold right now? Chances are that you don't. The reason that you don't is that you have been in semi-isolation, and so has everyone else, so anyone who did have a cold has had time to get over it before spreading it to someone else. Voila. The cold and flu season has been almost non-existent this year because we've all been in a soft-quarantine.

Now let's take it to the next level -- if there is a deadly invisible virus that only lives in people, how do you stop it? Easy - everyone goes into a hard quarantine for X number of days until you have kicked the virus, or you are dead. The problem, of course, is that it is nearly impossible to go into a true quarantine because we need food, and electricity, and that requires essential workers. We also try to treat those who get sick, so our healthcare workers are exposed. And we don't know how many days we need to be in quarantine. And we don't know if some people will carry the virus around indefinitely.

 

-------------

Now onto the statistical analysis. Keep in mind all everything below was done on March 31st, in an effort to explain quarantine to my Mom who lives in MI:

Look at the projections for Michigan. It is predicted to hit really hard and overload the health care system, but then burn out quickly:

346373772_mihospitals.jpg.2b2e840d4a9da30c1482743710430a52.jpg
 

989909048_mideaths.jpg.5a9d76bf729c7cd9e81fc35d7405e5f2.jpg



Compare to California. CA has "flattened the curve" by early implementation of isolation measures, which means that hospitals shouldn't get overloaded, but it also means that the isolation is going to need to go on for a much longer time:

829127373_cahospitals.jpg.8eea3d80a462ac958484f95146cd179b.jpg

904084409_cadeaths.jpg.b5cbd0fc6ed7f50bdf7eed88087b9f57.jpg

 
CA is forecasted to lose 5161 people to coronavirus over the next 2 months, which averages to ~2581/month.

MI is forecasted to lose 3235 people to coronavirus over the next 1 month.

Overall Mortality Rate = total population / number of deaths per year.

(Note that we don't know the true infection rate of Covid-19, because healthy people don't get tested, nor do carriers of coronavirus who do not show symptoms. We will only know how many people die, and in the US we will probably learn postmortem if they died of Covid-19 or other causes. As a result the "death rate of people infected with Covid-19" is a bad statistic, because we don't actually know how many people are infected. We can only look at the death rate of the total population.).

CA has ~40 million people.

MI has ~ 10 million people.

 

Mortality rate of the entire CA population due to coronavirus is predicted to be 0.0129%.

Mortality rate of the entire MI population due to coronavirus is predicted to be 0.0323%. That's 2.5 times worse.

 

According to the CDC the normal mortality rate in the US is 863.8 per 100,000 people per year = ~72 per 100,000 per month = 720 deaths per million people per month.

 

In CA during normal times 28,800 people die per month.

An additional 2581 are forecasted to die because of Coronavirus in April and May. That's a 9% increase for 2 consecutive months

In MI during normal times 7200 people die per month.

An additional 3235 are forecasted to die because of Coronavirus in April. That's a 45% increase.

Statistically speaking I can't tell you how many of the 3235 predicted to pass away in April were going to pass away of other causes that same month.

Conclusion:

So, from a statistical standpoint, the country is now entering the most dangerous part of the pandemic. The number of infections is going to be rising exponentially, especially in high risk areas like MI.

Treat every person you see as someone with the plague. Making 2 grocery trips instead of just 1 will literally DOUBLE your chance of getting infected. Don't go to home depot, don't go to the post office, don't go anywhere. Do not interact with anyone. 

MOM - STAY INSIDE FOR THE NEXT FEW WEEKS.

----------------------------

OK now back to April 27th:

495800115_caapr27.png.772e8ccc86964091356af44e84793ffe.png

 

505947847_miapr27.png.537e7307f5a2a828c53fe95f697aca55.png

 

As you can see, we are doing better in CA than was predicted, and MI is doing worse than predicted. Either way, the models prediction was AMAZINGLY accurate for having a tiny data set. The model is at: https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/california

 

Like Jeff said above, the reason that we are in quarantine and not letting the virus run rampant is that we don't want to overload the health care system.

In a perfect world our quarantine would have already killed the virus, and it mostly has. The problem is if we come out of quarantine too early there will be a resurgence. To do it safely we need to test all of the people who aren't currently quarantined (the unknowns), isolate those who have the virus, and then release the rest of the population from quarantine. All the dumbasses on the beach last weekend are really going to F things up for the rest of us, because they are now back in the "unknown" category.

Because we didn't "let it run rampant" we will actually never know how contagious and deadly it really is, and overall that is a good thing.

The more it spreads, the more it mutates, and the more it mutates the more difficult it is to find a vaccine for.

 

Anyways, the US screwed up royally at the beginning, but is now doing a pretty good job of handling the quarantine. The question is can we come out of the quarantine in a disciplined manner....

 

 

 

Edited by mitchb
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The thing that concerns me the most is the long term possibility that because it behaves so much like the flu that we get to deal with it seasonally.  They don't think it mutates as much, but it could...  and as I have said before, their annual flu shots, in my opinion, haven't suppressed that disease for the almost 20 years my wife has been getting them and I have not.  She gets the shot...  she gets the flu from employees or customers at work...  she comes home and gives it to me...  sometimes it hits her harder...  sometimes it hits me harder.  But I am not convinced the flu shot has done a thing for her.

Do we deal with this every year now ? :excuseme: 

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Posted (edited)

The only thing these bullshit curve warnings have done is flattened the healthcare system and the economy and got surfers and moms at parks arrested .    If you can social distance at Home Depot , grocery stores and pharmacies then you can social distance at all businesses.  All businesses are essential.  All recreation except for large events like arenas and stadiums is social distanced activity.   Liberate America .  Stop the lockdown of the truth .  Hospitals are empty and have been empty since this shut down began .   Our occupancy  is 70%.   A whopping huge case load of only 13 CV patients .    30 million unemployed,  food chain breakdowns occurring now .   What dies stopping my wife from going shopping at marshals have shit to do with nursing homes ???   Stop the crazy one size fits all lockdown bull shit 

Edited by bigbob
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7 hours ago, Kyle_S said:

Lockdown extended to may 31 for 6 Bay area counties. Hopefully sacramento co. Doesn't follow

Their big issue is Bart and they are liberal loons.   I bet Foresthill and GT extend there lockdowns too.  All bureaucracies  will follow moving goal posts till the grapes of this economic wrath hit government where it hurts , and that could take more months of economic pain 

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3 hours ago, mitchb said:

 

 

Normally I don't get involved in discussions like this, but since there are statistics involved it has caught my attention.

I wrote a long ass mathematical dissertation in late March to explain to my 78 year old mom in MI why she needed to take the quarantine seriously.

She decided that it would be easier to quarantine than to actually read what I wrote; so she has been laying low and so far so good.

Anyways, I'll give you guys the short version of it, if you are interested.

 

There are 2 ways of stopping a pandemic.

1) Tracking and Containment.

2) Quarantine.

 

-- Tracking and Containment --

Taiwan is the poster child on how to do tracking right. Taiwan was also in the crosshairs of the pandemic-- before covid19 hit there were 22,000 passengers travelling back and forth between China and Taiwan EVERY SINGLE DAY.

As of today, April 27th, guess how many people have died in Taiwan because of Covid19? Six. Six people have died.

For those of you who are yelling 'fake news' I can assure you that Taiwan has their shit together. I was just there last year, it's a pretty impressive place, right up there with Japan at the top of the economic and social ladder.

Six dead in a country of 23 million people, with a shitton of cross border traffic, including direct flights from Wuhan.

No quarantine. No lockdowns, no economic disaster.

They achieved this by being prepared (they were hit hard by SARS), by being diligent, and by acting fast.

Here is a good video someone made of their trip from the UK back to Taiwan:

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/taiwans-aggressive-efforts-are-paying-off-in-fight-against-covid-19

Another good video:

https://www.wsj.com/video/opinion-us-should-learn-from-taiwan-coronavirus-response/B65D077D-F1D6-4219-9F73-00589B3C96B7.html

Here's an article with a bunch of additional details:

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-taiwan-case-study-rapid-response-containment-2020-3

 

"But Americans would refuse to be tracked!" you say.

You are correct. And if we had acted swiftly and diligently **YOU** wouldn't need to be tracked - only people arriving from an infected area would need to be tracked, and only for 2 weeks. Mr International Business Traveler, are you refusing to be tracked? No problem then, we will just put you right back on the next plane back to wherever you came from.

"But we didn't know about it in time to track and contain!" you say.

Bull &%$#@!ing shit. Our National Center for Medical Intelligence warned both the military and the Whitehouse that there was an outbreak in Wuhan in LATE NOVEMBER. There were classified briefings to senators on January 20th, early enough for 4 bastard senators, including Feinstien, to sell their stocks off. Yes China hid the outbreak for 3 weeks until the end of January, but they were hiding it from Chinese citizens. Our government already knew about it and wasn't telling us. The inaction and lack of preparedness is our own fault. You can blame China or the WHO all you want, but the dates prove that we knew what was happening already.

References for the above statements:

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/intelligence-report-warned-coronavirus-crisis-early-november-sources/story?id=70031273

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/488593-four-senators-sold-stocks-before-coronavirus-threat-crashed-market

(and every other media outlet in the country)

 

-- Quarantine --

If you screw up the containment (like we did) then you have 2 options -- let it run rampant or quarantine.

Let me ask you a simple question -- do you have a cold right now? Chances are that you don't. The reason that you don't is that you have been in semi-isolation, and so has everyone else, so anyone who did have a cold has had time to get over it before spreading it to someone else. Voila. The cold and flu season has been almost non-existent this year because we've all been in a soft-quarantine.

Now let's take it to the next level -- if there is a deadly invisible virus that only lives in people, how do you stop it? Easy - everyone goes into a hard quarantine for X number of days until you have kicked the virus, or you are dead. The problem, of course, is that it is nearly impossible to go into a true quarantine because we need food, and electricity, and that requires essential workers. We also try to treat those who get sick, so our healthcare workers are exposed. And we don't know how many days we need to be in quarantine. And we don't know if some people will carry the virus around indefinitely.

 

-------------

Now onto the statistical analysis. Keep in mind all everything below was done on March 31st, in an effort to explain quarantine to my Mom who lives in MI:

Look at the projections for Michigan. It is predicted to hit really hard and overload the health care system, but then burn out quickly:

346373772_mihospitals.jpg.2b2e840d4a9da30c1482743710430a52.jpg
 

989909048_mideaths.jpg.5a9d76bf729c7cd9e81fc35d7405e5f2.jpg



Compare to California. CA has "flattened the curve" by early implementation of isolation measures, which means that hospitals shouldn't get overloaded, but it also means that the isolation is going to need to go on for a much longer time:

829127373_cahospitals.jpg.8eea3d80a462ac958484f95146cd179b.jpg

904084409_cadeaths.jpg.b5cbd0fc6ed7f50bdf7eed88087b9f57.jpg

 
CA is forecasted to lose 5161 people to coronavirus over the next 2 months, which averages to ~2581/month.

MI is forecasted to lose 3235 people to coronavirus over the next 1 month.

Overall Mortality Rate = total population / number of deaths per year.

(Note that we don't know the true infection rate of Covid-19, because healthy people don't get tested, nor do carriers of coronavirus who do not show symptoms. We will only know how many people die, and in the US we will probably learn postmortem if they died of Covid-19 or other causes. As a result the "death rate of people infected with Covid-19" is a bad statistic, because we don't actually know how many people are infected. We can only look at the death rate of the total population.).

CA has ~40 million people.

MI has ~ 10 million people.

 

Mortality rate of the entire CA population due to coronavirus is predicted to be 0.0129%.

Mortality rate of the entire MI population due to coronavirus is predicted to be 0.0323%. That's 2.5 times worse.

 

According to the CDC the normal mortality rate in the US is 863.8 per 100,000 people per year = ~72 per 100,000 per month = 720 deaths per million people per month.

 

In CA during normal times 28,800 people die per month.

An additional 2581 are forecasted to die because of Coronavirus in April and May. That's a 9% increase for 2 consecutive months

In MI during normal times 7200 people die per month.

An additional 3235 are forecasted to die because of Coronavirus in April. That's a 45% increase.

Statistically speaking I can't tell you how many of the 3235 predicted to pass away in April were going to pass away of other causes that same month.

Conclusion:

So, from a statistical standpoint, the country is now entering the most dangerous part of the pandemic. The number of infections is going to be rising exponentially, especially in high risk areas like MI.

Treat every person you see as someone with the plague. Making 2 grocery trips instead of just 1 will literally DOUBLE your chance of getting infected. Don't go to home depot, don't go to the post office, don't go anywhere. Do not interact with anyone. 

MOM - STAY INSIDE FOR THE NEXT FEW WEEKS.

----------------------------

OK now back to April 27th:

495800115_caapr27.png.772e8ccc86964091356af44e84793ffe.png

 

505947847_miapr27.png.537e7307f5a2a828c53fe95f697aca55.png

 

As you can see, we are doing better in CA than was predicted, and MI is doing worse than predicted. Either way, the models prediction was AMAZINGLY accurate for having a tiny data set. The model is at: https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/california

 

Like Jeff said above, the reason that we are in quarantine and not letting the virus run rampant is that we don't want to overload the health care system.

In a perfect world our quarantine would have already killed the virus, and it mostly has. The problem is if we come out of quarantine too early there will be a resurgence. To do it safely we need to test all of the people who aren't currently quarantined (the unknowns), isolate those who have the virus, and then release the rest of the population from quarantine. All the dumbasses on the beach last weekend are really going to F things up for the rest of us, because they are now back in the "unknown" category.

Because we didn't "let it run rampant" we will actually never know how contagious and deadly it really is, and overall that is a good thing.

The more it spreads, the more it mutates, and the more it mutates the more difficult it is to find a vaccine for.

 

Anyways, the US screwed up royally at the beginning, but is now doing a pretty good job of handling the quarantine. The question is can we come out of the quarantine in a disciplined manner....

 

 

 

Excellent work, Mitch. Now please provide an analysis of how it's possible that you are still riding the same bike and when you're going to put it out of it's misery.

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I agree with everything Mitch has said, but....the models and numbers don’t account for politics, greed, power, and control. 

Government of any kind, does not give up control easily once they have it.

A lot of it has to do with trust issues.  

Most of us don’t trust the government to do the right thing. That distrust comes with good reason.  

It appears we find ourselves in a situation where both sides of the argument are correct to a certain degree.

The answer doesn’t have to be only one way or the other. Right now in CA we are being told by the Governor it has to be one way.

Many people understand it doesn’t have to be one way. That we can do two things at once. 

It’s not about the virus anymore, if it ever was.

 

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9 minutes ago, SteveThe Snakes said:

You know the swine flu pretty much disappeared so why wouldn’t this flu disappear similarly? 🤷🏻‍♂️
 

They just dont know yet.  

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Don't worry, it will disappear when the media wants it to, it's better to keep the people scared, it's what works the best

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1 hour ago, SteveThe Snakes said:

Not just that but it is a ratings monster so they love it. 

CNN is up 134% endlessly bleating about CV from their anchors that had it. That alone tells you the Democrats are weaponzing it against Trump.

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, Montesa said:

CNN is up 134% endlessly bleating about CV from their anchors that had it. That alone tells you the Democrats are weaponzing it against Trump.

but how long can the dems hide 77 year old dementia patient Biden from the press?   They will tell stories about his great VP pick and then never let Biden debate Trump.   the demos and the MSM are so crooked.     

Edited by bigbob

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Sure wish that the libs would take it easy on my president. He obviously meant hospital grade disinfectant , and to inject it into the body , not to drink it. Too many spin doctors out there right now. He already lost that one , and damn near two votes in Arizona where the couple drank the fish tank cleaner. Last thing he wants to do is kill off his base. 

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Trump was kidding, but when Biden really does grab pussy, the MSM ignores it 

brand-inhaler.jpg

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