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$10,000 Bikes in 3-5 Years!!!!


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You don't need to be a mathematician to see the trend, but just looking at roughly $300-500 increases in bikes prices almost every year basically means we will see our first $10,000 bikes soon. As long as there are buyers, prices will continue this upward trend.

At $8500 for a 350, we are almost there.

Sounds like the used bike market will be solid, but only adults with strong discretionary income will be able to afford new bikes. How a 20 yr old can even afford bikes at current prices still baffles me. ­čśĆ

I have also assembled this chart to show this trend more clearly, taking actual Honda CRF 450 MSRP pricing from 2004-2010 and applying some simple assumptions. I'm afraid to look at KTM's data as their prices really shot up this year, therefore their prices don't really follow a normal trend. Honda's numbers seem more consistent, therefore, more predictable.

original.jpg

Edited by rickk
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You don't need to be a mathematician to see the trend, but just looking at roughly $300-500 increases in bikes prices almost every year basically means we will see our first $10,000 bikes soon. As long as there are buyers, prices will continue this upward trend.

At $8500 for a 350, we are almost there.

Sounds like the used bike market will be solid, but only adults with strong discretionary income will be able to afford new bikes. How a 20 yr old can even afford bikes at current prices still baffles me. ­čśĆ

Most dealers showing the 350sx online are at 7400-7800 I suspect will go down some after release also KTM's are always advertised at outrageous prices then the volume dealers discount them hard.

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Most dealers showing the 350sx online are at 7400-7800 I suspect will go down some after release also KTM's are always advertised at outrageous prices then the volume dealers discount them hard.

MSRP pricing is already set, however. What people actually pay is all over the map depending on where you live, how much profit a dealer makes, etc, etc.

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Even the 2 strokes are going up, although not by that much. I think a 250sx went up by $100 or something. But then again, who pays MSRP anymore. I usually walk into a dealership with and offer and cash in hand. If they don't like it I go to the next one.

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There are a lot of guys I know that really do enjoy riding a whole lot but they absolutely refuse to purchase a brand new bike at the current prices. Some of these guys make really good money too. If they won't buy a brand new bike at the current price points for the various brands there is simply no way that they will do it in 2-3 years after the annual price increases are tacked on. I fully understand where they're coming from.

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There are a lot of guys I know that really do enjoy riding a whole lot but they absolutely refuse to purchase a brand new bike at the current prices. Some of these guys make really good money too. If they won't buy a brand new bike at the current price points for the various brands there is simply no way that they will do it in 2-3 years after the annual price increases are tacked on. I fully understand where they're coming from.

I'm just the opposite with five racers in my house and always at least six bikes I won't buy used. Just have found out through experince it works better for a racing schedule to always start with a fresh machine.

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I'm just the opposite with five racers in my house and always at least six bikes I won't buy used. Just have found out through experince it works better for a racing schedule to always start with a fresh machine.

The people that I referred to aren't into racing and they are only recreational riders. For them it's not as important as it is to riders that are really into racing. I can understand both sides of the new vs. used argument. However, there are lots and lots of low hour bikes out there for sale in today's economy that most definitely suffice for the recreational rider that isn't looking for a competitive edge like people that are into racing.

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i graduated last may financial economics... please dont show me any more demand graphs! haha jk... good stuff...

Point of economics is its a theory. Just because price will go up doesn't mean demand will go down. I do not expect the sales to drop just because they hit the 10k point. What you need to do it plot price vs units sold. I wouldn't be surprised if units sold has been consistent.

What im curious about is why honda chose to have one of their most significant price increases in 2009 model year (fall 08) when the economy collapsed. That was the year prices shot up everywhere due to the sharp increases in gas prices so honda probably just followed the trend.

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i graduated last may financial economics... please dont show me any more demand graphs! haha jk... good stuff...

Point of economics is its a theory. Just because price will go up doesn't mean demand will go down. I do not expect the sales to drop just because they hit the 10k point. What you need to do it plot price vs units sold. I wouldn't be surprised if units sold has been consistent.

What im curious about is why honda chose to have one of their most significant price increases in 2009 model year (fall 08) when the economy collapsed. That was the year prices shot up everywhere due to the sharp increases in gas prices so honda probably just followed the trend.

Graphs rule...HA.

I'd go a bit farther and say it's more than just theory. Luxury items do fall into a different category, however, I don't agree that sales will not be impacted. See previous post. Even though it's a luxury item, for those with modest incomes and poor credit, they will be impacted for sure; they already are. It's a pain to find all sales data for all manufactures, but I'm almost convinced they are just following the older buyers now as they can keep prices high and don't have to worry about the kid with no money and no credit. My opinion: when dirt bikes reach the cost of street bikes, there's a problem. I think we are there.

Wasn't the 09 Honda a new revolutionary design and some exchange rate issues? I wonder what the real costs are to produce a bike after R&D costs are adsorbed.

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The people that I referred to aren't into racing and they are only recreational riders. For them it's not as important as it is to riders that are really into racing. I can understand both sides of the new vs. used argument. However, there are lots and lots of low hour bikes out there for sale in today's economy that most definitely suffice for the recreational rider that isn't looking for a competitive edge like people that are into racing.

Well trail riders could all buy used TTR230's racers are going to be taking the new bikes off the floor. Take the new KTM 350 I have buddies who have already paid for them sight unseen. I'm going to wait six more months or so before I jump in see if they have any teething pains. I imagine KTM will let the price drop once the initial rush subsides some.

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Well trail riders could all buy used TTR230's racers are going to be taking the new bikes off the floor. Take the new KTM 350 I have buddies who have already paid for them sight unseen. I'm going to wait six more months or so before I jump in see if they have any teething pains. I imagine KTM will let the price drop once the initial rush subsides some.

I think you are definitely making a smart move by waiting six months on the 350.

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i decided to wait as well at the very least until winter when bike sales around here are very bad. i orig was gonna get one right away but my 250 is working so good and is so dialed in i have no need to get a second bike right now. i am gonna enjoy my 250 for this season and sit back and see what happens with the 350 and if all well maybe when there is 2ft of snow outside i will hit up a desperate dealer and try to get a steal. and if there all gone till next year then oh well but the prices i have been getting phone calls with they can keep it

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I just bought a new bike it did not come close to the retail price that included all taxes,tags, shipping,for what its worth its a brand new bike that will be around for some time, not that older bikes are bad or not good but as time goes all things become dated.ps this summer hot and dry ride hard.northeast const co

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I used to get a new bike every other year, but I'm on my third year with my current ride and can foresee one more year before buying new again. It's not just the cost of the bike, but the accessories, suspension work etc.

Thats for dang sure. Skid plate, hand guards, rekluse, suspension work, stabilizer mount new number plate graphics with your number it's a killer

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