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Supercross Points Implications

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There are obviously hundreds, if not thousands of possibilities of how the last few rounds will work out. But, here are a few of them, and I hope my math is not incorrect. :thumbsup:

Current points:

Ryan Villopoto......293

Chad Reed..........287 (+6)

Ryan Dungey.......286 (+7)

James Stewart.....284 (+9)

Villapoto - He just needs two second place finishes and he's the champ. He'd win any tie breaker between him or Dungey/Reed because he's won more races.

Reed - If he won both remaining rounds, Villapoto has to finish third or worse in one of the two remaining races for Reed to win the title. If Villapoto finished second in each, he still win due to a tie break rule.

Dungey - If he won both remaining rounds, Villapoto has to finish third or worse in one of the two remaining races for Dungey to win the title.

Stewart - If he won both remaining rounds, Villapoto has to finish third or worse in both races, for him to win. Reed would also have to finish third or worse in one the last two.

There are tons of possibilities, but these are the more simple ones.

The obvious take from this is that everyone needs to just try to win, because it's so close. It's an exciting season with so many riders still in it.

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Yep... its pretty exciting. RV better be smart. But if he can find a way to win, he can ride defensively in Las Vegas.

Everyone else needs to win and has nothing to loose. I expect them all to win or die trying. I swear next year I simply will not care or remember who ends up seconds in the points. I wish Canard were in it. He seems to have a way of cranking up the speed and excitement to dangerous levels, which I love!

Looking at the track, the start will be kinda long and fast with the potential for many riders to come in real hot at the first turn. The guys who are the good starters will avoid danger for sure.

I hear its a bit cold there right now.

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I did something similar, but with a few more scenarios. These assume that the current top 4 guys all get top 4 finishes in the final two rounds:

RV

If RV goes 1-1, 1-2, 1-3, 1-4 or 2-2 he will win regardless of other finishes (no-one can over-take him).

JS

If he goes 1-1, CR and RD can't win, but RV will still win with 2-2 or 2-3.

If he goes 1-2, RD can win with 1-2, unless RV also goes 3-3 in which case RV will win on count back.

If he goes 1-2, CR can win with 1-2.

If he goes 1-2, CR can win with 1-3 unless RV also goes 3-3 or 2-3

RD

If RD goes 1-1 he will win unless RV also goes 2-2.

If RD goes 1-2 he can win if CR goes worse than 1-2 AND RV goes worse than 3-3

If RD goes 1-3 he can win only if RV goes worse than 3-3, and CR goes worse than 1-2, and JS goes worse than 1-3.

CR

If CR goes 1-1 he will win unless RV also goes 2-2 (equal points but RV wins on count back).

If CR goes 1-2 he will win unless RV also goes better than 3-3.

If CR goes 1-3 he will win if RV goes worse than 3-3 and RD goes worse than 1-2

Assuming the top 4 all get top 4 finishes in the final two rounds, what is the minimum each rider needs to still be in with a chance?

RV - 3-4 or better

CR - 1-3 or better

RD - 1-3 or better

JS - 1-2 or better

Also there are a heap of scenarios with tied points. RV and JS would benefit most from these due to their number of wins. Any tie between JS and RV would most likely fall in JS favour because to get close to RV he will have had to win at least one race and RV has to have two lower place finishes; this would put JS ahead on total wins.

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Good info, Ando72. Lots more possibilities than mine.

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I'm hoping this weekend goes JS, RD, CR and RV. Then next weekend, It would be whoever wins get the title, or close to that.

If it went in that order this weekend points would be like this.

RV 312

JS 309

RD 309

CR 308

Now that would be a good finale, If I'm adding correctly. Ha!

I've been thinking to much...

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I'm hoping this weekend goes JS, RD, CR and RV. Then next weekend, It would be whoever wins get the title, or close to that.

If it went in that order this weekend points would be like this.

RV 312

JS 309

RD 309

CR 308

Now that would be a good finale, If I'm adding correctly. Ha!

I've been thinking to much...

That would be cool!

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I'm hoping this weekend goes JS, RD, CR and RV. Then next weekend, It would be whoever wins get the title, or close to that.

If it went in that order this weekend points would be like this.

RV 312

JS 309

RD 309

CR 308

Now that would be a good finale, If I'm adding correctly. Ha!

I've been thinking to much...

this is probably what is going to happen , a winner take all race at the last round .... a fitting way to end the season :thumbsup:

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ando, got a bit of time on your hands mate

good post..i wish there were more like this

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ando, got a bit of time on your hands mate

good post..i wish there were more like this

Ya, I was bored at work the other day!!

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Now we an take the fastest man to hit the ground out of the equation.

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look's like RV was on the gas ! turning the fastest lap of the race in route to the win and probably the championship , I thought JS was going to take it and have a chance to pull off the comeback to remember

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Fastest man to hit the planet!! LOL

I have seen that same move ? how many times!!

I also think someone said something about JS being able to handle pressure!

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Those hoop sections are not intimidated by flashing lights!

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Stewart's not mathmatically elimated. His chances are really non-existant, though.

Let just say all of the planets align. Stewart wins out, he's at 320. 'Poto, Reed and Dungey would have to finish Vegas 20th, 11th, and 8th respectively (or worse), which would place them at least tied for 2nd, points wise, at 319. Of course, 'Poto has the tie breaker with number of wins over Dungey and Reed. But then Reed and Dungey are tied with 1 win each. Hmmm?

Along those lines, if Poto places 19th (2) and Stewart wins out - then Stewart and 'Poto would be tied in points. How does that play in a tie breaker? They would both have 6 wins each if that scenario plays out.

-Kerry

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what does rv2 have to get in vegas to guarantee championship if reed wins?

i think 6th correct me if im wrong i believe that would give him 16 pts, and thats if reed wins

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what does rv2 have to get in vegas to guarantee championship if reed wins?

5th place gives him 16 points and the title.

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I am going to say RV2 has got this wrapped up, I don't think 5th place will be to difficult for this man(although he did miss a main event a few races back).

I still think it would be amazing to see CR22 get the Championship, especially on his own team. Overall I would say all these riders have put in an amazing season(including Canard minus the broken femur). Top 4 riders separated by single digit points, amazing.

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