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Supercross Who will do well or poorly in sx this year that we may not expect?

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Any one have any thoughts on maybe a "sleeper". That may get up on the podium and do decent this season? Or that may suck it up and do bad?

I think metty is someone I am gonna watch to do well. Also kyle chilsom or how ever you spell his name may do well and hit the box.

I question windham. We know he won't suck probably but I think his top five days may be more spread out now.

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I am thinking Short might be a surprise , he said , they dont have issues with the bike so all they are working on is him and his performance needs to get him faster and to not fade at the end , that has always been his hold back from winning , so hopefully he will get his Honda on the box

As far as bad , i am thinking Dungey will struggle , not because of the bike , but because of himself , i think he is either going to have to get out of his comfort zone to stay up front , and learn to ride outside of that zone consistently , or he will struggle and miss the box a lot , to many other fast riders in the mix to be letting the win come to him , instead of fighting for it !

He either needs to man up and go for it , or "settle" for 4th or 5th , he does not have any choice in this matter , either he fights for every win , or he fights for 4th or below

Weather that is Doing Poorly or not remains to be seen

The only other rider i think will struggle is going to be Alessi , he does not do well in SX anyway , so he may not make the top 10 if he does not focus on moving forward and not fading halfway thru the race, and just blatantly taking wide lines letting everyone by, like he has in the past , its like a Dungey mentality but worse , you cant "settle" if you want to win , just ask RV

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Yeah dungey is interesting one. Actually I fell the opposite about alessi. I think he may do decent compared to his last sx season. Last season he improved a lot by the end of the year so I think compared to last season he will do well. And I forgot about short he for sure is someone that can be on the box in sx.

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I think short will be a top 5 threat now that he has his confidence back with the honda and McGrath as a mentor

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I don't see Dungey struggling for one minute. He has what all of us in the stands seem to think is an 'aggression problem,' but it's a problem that has got him not one, but two #1 plates, and a pile of race wins. He is silly fast, and you cannot change that.

Grant could be interesting to watch on a positive note, provided he stays healthy. I think Alessi is going to struggle badly in SX, too many super fast guys who don't fade competing this season.

My 2 cents, for what it's worth, and that's generally not a lot... lol

MD

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My point with Dungey is his aggression , and i think it will hurt his chances because of the lineup , as you mentioned , there is Grant , then there is Reed , Stewart , and we already know RV has aggression , throw in a few other riders that can be a threat *Short maybe* ,Metcalf ,Byrne , and remember that they will all be battling for the title and the wins aggressively , i see with Dungey the same thing i see with Alessi , the giving in and settling , that ain't gonna fly with that crowd , too many want it , and i dont think any of the others mentioned are going to settle for anything but a 1,2,or 3 spot on the box , Dungeys motto has been let the race come to him , and just keep plugging along , well if he waits for that , 20 laps will be over and he will be looking for the pits not the podium , i dont think he is silly fast , i would say that about RV and JS or even Canard , or Barcia for that matter , but not Dungey , he is up there , but he usually needs to capitalize on someones mistake or he will do as he has done lately and be 16 seconds behind the leader , or lead pack , so there goes that podium and there goes the title shot just like last year/this year's SX/MX titles , you cant dilly-fart around with this crowd , he needs to be Johnny-on-the-Spot and be aggressive , or he has no shot

If he proves me wrong , fine , but i dont see it happening , not if everyone stays healthy and is on their game !

... Not trying to argue , Just Sayin ...

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i see with Dungey the same thing i see with Alessi , the giving in and settling

... Not trying to argue , Just Sayin ...

Haha, no worries Jim, these debates are what makes being a fan fun, as long as they stay civil of course.

As for the quote above, I (of course) totally disagree. Dungey is fast, much faster than Alessi is over a moto, and he has the proven skills to fight for P1 - Alessi does not.

I agree that to see some more aggression from RD would be great, but it's not his style. Agro doesn't necessarily mean fast, or more importantly, consistant. Reed got hurt last MX season, RV had two nasty injuries the last few years, Alessi has had enough crashes to make a feature length movie, and the likes of Short and Barcia and Grant are in the same boat, not to mention JS7. That doesn't win championships and I think RD knows that.

The thing I think you may not be giving enough credit to is the speed RD has. Were it not for a couple bike issues in MX this year he's right there for the #1 plate. Alessi will never be in that position. Reed proved the same thing until he got hurt too.

Besides, DeCoster will kill him if he doesn't go 100%! Lol

Either way, I can't wait to get it started...!

MD

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i see dumgey as a real threat, his consistency is what wins titles and he can carry speed like the others, what im saying is he is a top tier rider. We all know the championship is only gonna be won by one of say 5/6 riders and the rest are on another level, slightly lower. That doesnt mean they arent gonna win the odd round but the championship is another story.

I can see the same dudes up front as last year with maybe Canard surprising us all

Im not a Canard fan its just a hunch, im aussie so i root for skip

Im looking forward to it as much asany one, cant wait really

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Short isn't going to get top 5 unless one of the actual top 5 guys crash - just like last season. Short is fast, and one of the most likable guys out there, but he's going to have his hands full with Windham, Brayton, Millsaps, Metty, and possibly Weimer and Alessi (Alessi for sure at the starts...of course, I'm going to be REAL smug if neither Short nor Alessi get's their hole shot "magic" back).

Short is good, but he is not Reed, Dungey, RV, Stewart, Canard good. Not by a long shot.

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Not saying Short is like them , what i am saying is Short has come in 2nd and 3rd in the championship several times , he has what it takes , just has not been able to put it together for 20 laps and get the wins and overalls ,, kinda like Dungey , also in the outdoors , he comes out like a scalded ape , but he fades a little over half way (kinda like Alessi) , that has been his downfall , from his interview on the new team , that is what he and the team are focusing on , MC would not have picked him if he did not think he COULD be a contender

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sorry for the typos, need glasses just am in denial, its an age thing

LOL i didnt think it was a typo , i just thought you liked calling Dungey, Dumgey

Kinda like when i call him Grungey or Spongey , or Dingey

And i dont see Canard as a surprise , he is definitely fast enough , his only issues is the ground needs to be under his tires not his butt , if he can make it thru the season unhurt , he is going to be a serious threat !

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Haha, no worries Jim, these debates are what makes being a fan fun, as long as they stay civil of course.

As for the quote above, I (of course) totally disagree. Dungey is fast, much faster than Alessi is over a moto, and he has the proven skills to fight for P1 - Alessi does not.

I agree that to see some more aggression from RD would be great, but it's not his style. Agro doesn't necessarily mean fast, or more importantly, consistant. Reed got hurt last MX season, RV had two nasty injuries the last few years, Alessi has had enough crashes to make a feature length movie, and the likes of Short and Barcia and Grant are in the same boat, not to mention JS7. That doesn't win championships and I think RD knows that.

The thing I think you may not be giving enough credit to is the speed RD has. Were it not for a couple bike issues in MX this year he's right there for the #1 plate. Alessi will never be in that position. Reed proved the same thing until he got hurt too.

Besides, DeCoster will kill him if he doesn't go 100%! Lol

Either way, I can't wait to get it started...!

MD

I just think the agro thing is what has kept him from staying with RV , and JS , they ride to win , even Reed gets aggressive to the point where he wont let Dungey past unless he earns it , that is where i see his downfall unless he gets more like the rest of the group and fights for the plate and wins , he as i always say , Settles for whatever position he gets because he does not want to step out of that comfort zone , that is what i mean , that might be what keeps him in the back , its not going to be a walk in the park for anyone this year , too many have something to prove and wont back down !

As for the outdoors , i thought Reed had a better chance than he did to be honest ! , RV was on it , and Dungey was not at his pace , he needed a mistake from RV (once RV got on the new bike) , and that is something you cant depend on to win a race or a title !

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stewart tries his first backflip over a quad and unfortunately lands on the new mitch payton prodigy that is JLAW! at which point the Jlaw gets piss, freak out style and pulls out his tech9 and goes colombine on half of the field. only RV and RD are spaired due to them being out front so far. the race gets red-flagged and during the restart nobody but RV, RD, and CR are on the gate so the GOAT and Emig come out of retirement for one last race and the GOAT spanks them all.

Afterwards with such a diminished field Feld Motorsports can't figure out how to fill seats due to such a dwindled field so they institute a trials tire only rule to "mix it up a bit"

mx/sx go the way of the lawn dart because for all but a hardcore group of diehards it's proven to be waay to dangerous for John Q. Public.

of course i could be wrong. i'm just guessing.

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Not saying Short is like them , what i am saying is Short has come in 2nd and 3rd in the championship several times , he has what it takes , just has not been able to put it together for 20 laps and get the wins and overalls ,, kinda like Dungey , also in the outdoors , he comes out like a scalded ape , but he fades a little over half way (kinda like Alessi) , that has been his downfall , from his interview on the new team , that is what he and the team are focusing on , MC would not have picked him if he did not think he COULD be a contender

But look at all the times Short has come in 2nd and 3rd in championship or even in individual races - the top 5 we had this season and will have 2012 weren't there, and there weren't even 5 other similar caliber guys. Hell, in 2010 he got 3rd outdoors - 2nd went to Metty. Dungey took first, and CR, JS, RV, and TC weren't even racing. I really like Short and I'd like to see him do well, but he's just not in the same league and it will take a lot of chips falling his way for him to do well, and being a season of multiple races and points determining the winner I don't think the chips are going to fall his way often enough to make him a contender. He has the potential to take a podium or top 5 should there be problems with the top 5 guys, but as I said before he has some stiff competition with the next 5 fast guys, Windham and Metty especially, but I think Brayton will be a lot better this year on the Factory Honda and Millsaps might pick up a few things training with Stewart that will make him better too.

As for McGrath - who else did he have to choose from that COULD be a contender? He got the best that was on the market. Sure you could argue JS was available...but considering McGrath's partner that had about 0 chance of happening. And if Factory Honda couldn't get Dungey there's no way McGrath would have been able to swing it. CR has his own team, TC was still on Factory Honda, and RV is still with Kawi. Windham was signed, Metty signed, Alessi...well, I'm sure McGrath didn't want to touch that one with a 100 foot pole. Brayton and Millsaps were up for grabs, but Short I think everyone can agree Short is the better choice of those 2.

I hope to see Short do well, but I don't think it's likely at all. He really should have stayed with KTM. I don't know that trading The Man for the The King will help him out any, and with KTM he could always blame the unproved bike for poor results. He won't be able to blame Honda for that. :lol:

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Jim,

If you'll remember, Dungey did give RV the punt during MX season this year, in Minni I believe, and he out raced him early on too. The 2012 Kawi's arrival seemed to give RV a little something extra, and a whole lot more confidence which carried him through the rest of the season. If Reed doesn't launch into orbit and knock himself stupid, that championship is wide open...

Care to make a friendly wager? ;-)

Like I said, it should be a great SX season, and I'm excited to see RD on the Ktm as well, nice to see something else added to the mix. He'll make it fly I'm sure.

Well, off to bed for me. Right after a quick scotch of course!

MD

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stewart tries his first backflip over a quad and unfortunately lands on the new mitch payton prodigy that is JLAW! at which point the Jlaw gets piss, freak out style and pulls out his tech9 and goes colombine on half of the field. only RV and RD are spaired due to them being out front so far. the race gets red-flagged and during the restart nobody but RV, RD, and CR are on the gate so the GOAT and Emig come out of retirement for one last race and the GOAT spanks them all.

Afterwards with such a diminished field Feld Motorsports can't figure out how to fill seats due to such a dwindled field so they institute a trials tire only rule to "mix it up a bit"

mx/sx go the way of the lawn dart because for all but a hardcore group of diehards it's proven to be waay to dangerous for John Q. Public.

of course i could be wrong. i'm just guessing.

LMAO. That's pretty funny schrode.

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I honestly think RV rode maybe a little "off" until he debuted the 2012 bike. Not to say it is not any better than the 2011, but it sure helps sales if there's a noticeable improvement in a rider with just a bike change. And I do remember RV seeming like he was down a notch or two at the first of the season. He always seemed like he had a slight edge over Dungey in the past, and it didn't seem that way in this year's MX season until he got on the 2012 bike.

But like Jim, I think RD is gonna have to get some aggression going to be champ again. He can do it, and has done it, but it seems like something has to spark him to get him fired up. Like his late start at southwick. That ride in the second moto was truly amazing. He passed people quicker and better on that slick, muddy track better than he usually does on a well groomed track, which is proof he's got the talent. Will he use it? It seems that it takes some sort of urgency or adrenaline to kick in and get him going.

Or it could be a health issue? How many times has he been out with injury? This itself could make a good argument for his more conservative riding style.

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I dont disagree with him staying healthy has contributed to his wins and his ability to last the season due to his conservative riding , BUT , this season is not going to have the time for conservative riding or settling , that is what my point keeps (mainly because i dont feel he has it in him) being , is either he needs to get aggressive and charge and fight for the top spot , or he simply will not get it , not with this lineup (again , IF everyone stays healthy and races the entire season) , there are too many as i stated before, that have something to prove , there will be no time for letting the race come to you

Everyone so far (with the exception of schrode) has had some very valid points , another month and we will know who is prepared , and who is focused , and who is confident ! , it may be only one guy who has it all , ......or...... ! :lol:

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i think dungey is the best consitant rider but he will take a step back this year from the new bike. then you have short pulling hole shots again and brayton on a factory honda its going to be tuff or him we all know passing is his week point. stewart and rv come threw in the first lap thats going to be the difference in this championship.

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